1. Topic

  How to assess present and future Air Quality and exposure?

2. Introduction

   

Under the EC Air Quality Directives each Member State is required to assess and report, annually, the air quality in its zones and agglomerations. If the concentrations are found to be above a Limit Value + Margin Of Tolerance (LV+MOT), implying that it is likely that this Limit Value is likely to be exceeded in the future, a prognosis of the future air quality has to be made (see also the topics How to develop an Air Quality Action Plan ? and Terms in the EC Air Quality Directives: What do they mean?. The assessment should include an estimate of the population exposure.

Other topic discussions have dealt with the topics of monitoring, emission inventories, modelling, scenario developments, etc. This topic description will deal with the procedure for actually quantifying the spatially distributed air pollution concentrations in the zone or agglomeration, when the necessary input data are available.


3. Discussion

   

“Preliminary Assessment (PA)”

This is the term used in the EC air quality Directives for the air quality assessment that is to be done in each Member State as a basis for dividing the territory into zones and agglomerations, which are to be the air quality management areas, in which the MS needs to do annual assessments. Guidance for methods that can be used to carry out this PA is found in the web link section below.

Regular (annual) assessments

Assessment regimes

Please refer to the Topic Terms in the EC Air Quality Directives: What do they mean?, especially its Annex 1 on how the air pollution concentration levels in a zone compared to the Limit Value (LV) (assessed through the PA or some other means) determine the methods to be used in the assessment:

· Concentrations above the LV: high quality measurements, may be supplemented by Supplementary assessment methods;

· Concentrations between Upper and Lower Assessment Thresholds (UAT and LAT): quality measurements are mandatory, but fewer, less intensive measurements may be needed, provided it is supplemented by other information;

· Concentrations below LAT: modelling, indicative monitoring and objective estimation is sufficient.

In the following, we will concentrate on the two first regimes. Regarding the lowest regime (below LAT), methods like those described in the Preliminary Assessment Guidance (see the web link section below) may be used.

Monitoring

The minimum requirements to the monitoring network in zones are given in Annex of the Daughter Directives, as well as specifications of reference methods. The use of other methods require that their equivalence to the reference methods has been proven (see e.g. Guidance for the Demonstration of Equivalency of Ambient Air Monitoring Methods" (pdf 950Kb), as well as the topic descriptions on how to monitor various pollutants).

The monitoring network shall include stations that represent both hot spot exposure as well as the more typical exposure situation in the zone/agglomeration (see the AQ Directives’ annexes).

Supplementary assessment

Monitoring alone will normally not be sufficient to satisfy the requirements in the Directives that the population exposure should be assessed. The needs for quantification of the spatial distribution of air pollution concentrations cannot be satisfied by monitoring only. Also, if the LVs are exceeded, an action plan shall be developed, which requires that the contributions from various sources of emissions be quantified. Normally, monitoring alone is not sufficient to assess these contributions quantitatively.

Supplementary assessment methods include emissions inventorying and air pollution modelling.

Emissions inventorying: This is dealt with in the Topic How to develop urban Emission Inventories?.

Air Pollution modelling: This is dealt with in the topic descriptions related to air pollution modelling, such as “How to use modelling techniques in air quality assessment and projections?” on air pollution modelling in the context of the EC Air Quality Directives, as well as the other topics on modelling. The model to be used should be validated for use in the urban area in question.

Assessments in different types of zones

The zones of the national territory that the Member States have defined are of different types. Typically they are either:

1. Urban areas /agglomerations (so called if having more than 250,000 inhabitants), usually limited by administrative borders, or by topographical features such as valleys, bowls, ridges which define a natural air-shed. They are usually defined as zones, if the PA or other assessment has estimated that the concentrations or a regulated pollutant is higher than the UAT.

2. Larger regions, composed of rural as well as urban areas.

3. Regions/areas affected by specific industrial sources.

Assessments in area types 1 and 3 above will typically follow the process as described below. Assessments in the larger regions of type 2 above can be more complicated as these region areas have sometimes been defined as separate zones because the air pollution levels are mostly low, but smaller areas within the cities in these zones may have levels above the UAT. Most Member States will rely on monitoring to assess the air quality in these zones and still comply with the requirements in the directives, if in addition to monitoring simpler forms of modelling and estimation methods are used to back up the monitoring.

Necessary input data for air pollution modelling

4. GIS digital map for the zone / agglomeration,

5. Activities and emissions inventory, its spatial and temporal distribution (see Topic How to develop urban Emission Inventories?),

6. Population distribution, in km2 or better,

7. Meteorological and topographical data,

8. Scenarios for future development (see Topic How to develop scenarios for Air Quality in the future?).

Procedure for the AQ assessments

9. The results of the monitoring can be plotted on the GIS map, its various statistics values (e.g. annual average, percentiles corresponding to the LVs, etc).

10. The results of the modelling results in iso-lines of concentration values (for the same types of statistics as the monitoring data, for instance annual average), which are also plotted on the GIS map.

11. Data assimilation techniques could be used to get the most possible information out of the combined monitoring and modelling results (see e.g. http://www.ecmwf.int/newsevents/training/rcourse_notes/ )

12. Estimation of the distribution of population exposure to concentrations of various levels, by combining the concentration distribution with the population distribution. This can be done using the GIS mapping system.

There are various types of air pollution models available (see e.g. the Model Documentation System of the ETC-ACC http://air-climate.eionet.eu.int/databases/MDS/index_html, and the topic descriptions on modelling).

Some models only deal with concentration assessments in a grid system in the area (e.g. 1km2 grids), and some models include in addition so-called sub-grid models, which deal with concentrations close to specific sources (hot-spots) such as near streets and roads, and near industrial stacks. The latter models will come closer to an estimate of the real exposure situation, which includes also the higher end of the exposure distribution.


4. Recommendation / Conclusion

   

Assessment of present and future air pollution concentrations in zones defined according to the requirements in the Air Quality Directives can be done by monitoring in a network as specified in the Directives, and in addition by using “supplementary methods” (term used in the Directives) such as emission inventories, air pollution modelling. The detailed requirements to the assessment system are determined by the actual pollutant levels and by the type of zone.


5. Examples / Further Reading

   

Examples of EC Projects developing tools for the assessment of present and future air quality and population exposure are given in examples ISHTAR Project : building an advanced models suite for urban sustainable planning, HEARTS Project - Modelling Health Effects and Risks of Transport Systems, Integrated Land Use and Transport Planning tools.

Details on the general topic of integrated models suites covering air quality and exposure are given in Topic What role for Integrated Models Suites in Urban Planning?.


Further Examples:

Example of scenarios development and assessment of plast, present and future AQ and exposure in Venice
Air quality assessment in the Venice-Mestre urban area
Modelling Bristol Hotspots
Study of atmospheric depositions in the surroundings of the porto Margera industrial area (Venice, I) and in corresponence with some biomonitoring stations.

6. Additional Documents / Web Links

   

· The Guidance Report on Preliminary Assessment under the EU air quality Directives: http://www.europa.eu.int/comm/environment/air/ambient.htm, click on Guidance report on Preliminary Assessment under EU Air Quality Directives

· The Guidance Report on Assessment under the EC Air Quality Directives: http://www.europa.eu.int/comm/environment/air/pdf/guidanceunderairquality.pdf

· URBAIR (AQ assessment methodologies)

· Population exposure estimation methods (e.g. FMI EXPOLIS, FP5 ISHTAR and HEARTS Projects, URBAN EXPOSURE Project, URBAN AEROSOL Project, ): see http://www.ishtar-fp5-eu.com/ and www.euro.who.int/transport (HEARTS Project)


Last Updated


 

25th January 2005

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