INTEGAIRE case study submission form

Title of Example
		Short term air quality forecasting in Bristol

Example

Bristol and the surrounding municipalities use the services of Cambridge Environmental Research Centre (CERC) to provide short term air quality forecasts. The forcast is calculated each morning by using meteorological date from the PA Weather centre (www.paweather.co.uk) which is fed into two models.

ADMS-Urban is an air pollution dispersion model to predict pollution from roads and point sources. Bristol City Council has provided a detailed emission inventory to CERC to run this model. Rural Predictor is a statistical model which uses historical corrrelations between pollution and a range of meteorological conditions to predict pollution levels at rural locations.

This example can be found at www.bristol-city.gov.uk/airquality or www.cerc.co.uk/avon.

The weather data are fed into the rural predictor to predict background concentrations of particles, nitrogen oxides and ozone. This is combined with the ADMS model to predict the concentrations in the urban environment.

The worst case prediction is given an index number between 1 – 10 based on the scale used by the BBC and other national organisations. The table below shows how the indices relate to the air pollution bandings developed by the UK Government Department of Environment and Rural Affairs (DEFRA).

A forcast can be selected for particles , ozone, notrogen dioxide and carbon monoxide for the present day and the following two days.

Band	Index	Nitrogen Dioxide	Sulphur Dioxide	Carbon Monoxide	PM10 Particles	Health descriptor
		hourly mean	15 minute mean	8 hour mean	24 hour mean
		ppb	ppb	ppm	µgm^-3
LOW	1	0-49	0-32	0.0-3.2	0-16	Effects are unlikely to be noticed even by individuals who know they are sensitive to air pollutants.
	2	50-99	33-66	3.3-6.6	17-32
	3	100-149	67-99	6.7-9.9	33-49
MODERATE	4	150-199	100-132	10.0-11.5	50-57	Mild effects, unlikely to require action, may be noticed amongst sensitive individuals.
	5	200-249	133-166	11.6-13.2	58-66
	6	250-299	167-199	13.3-14.9	67-74
HIGH	7	300-332	200-266	15.0-16.5	75-82	Significant effects may be noticed by sensitive individuals and action to avoid or reduce these effects may be needed (e.g. reducing exposure by spending less time in polluted areas outdoors). Asthmatics will find that their 'reliever' inhaler is likely to reverse the effects on the lung.
	8	333-366	267-332	16.6-18.2	83-91
	9	367-399	333-399	18.3-19.9	91-99
VERY HIGH	10	More than 400	More than 400	More than 20	More than 100	The effects on sensitive individuals described for 'High' levels of pollution may worsen.

Last Updated
		13th January 2005

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